The Oscars are upon us. Admittedly, I’ve come away disappointed from most of the recent years, and when it comes to these awards things, anyone who disagrees usually shrugs it off by saying they know what film was really best — or actor, or director — and that that person or flick will stand the test of time.

But the problem is not all of them do, and only the winners get enshrined to history. In this way, we’re all in danger. If Avatar wins Best Picture, in like 25 years, the next generation is going to think we’re a bunch of buffoons…or if not quite buffoons, tall blue weirdos with USB cord ponytails. Woof.

If you’re an Avatar apologist, fanatic, whatever — I’m sorry. If your pic doesn’t win, there will always be history (like box office records, God help us). But here are my picks: what should, what will, and the chances that we might all walk away happy come March 7th.

Best Picture:

10 noms. Hate to be a cynic, but it’s a bit of pandering on the Academy’s part. While District 9 is a great movie, it wouldn’t win in a bazillion years. It’s to try and ensure a segment of audience. Likewise to Blind Side — again, a great movie, maybe a sports genre all-timer, but never in an eternity.

Here are your 10 noms:

Avatar, District 9, The Blind Side, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, Up In The Air.

Should Win: Hmmm… I’d be delighted to see Up win it here. It was great — a critical and audience favorite — and would be a historic win as an animated film, Beauty and the Beast being the only other ever nominated. But this feels like maybe one of those pandering nominations.

Will Win: The Hurt Locker. It’s between this and Up In The Air. But Up In The Air is losing air while Locker is full buzz ahead. Historically speaking, Locker fits the Best Picture bill. It’s timely, a war flick, and subtly political. It would be the Academy’s nod to the Iraq War era. Note: If The Academy really means Best in “Best Picture” and not in the subjective way we argue what is best, in the definitive way that something is or isn’t a worthy film, Avatar will never win. It’s pop noise, not a compelling story. A technological gizmo, not art.

Upset Pick: Precious

Best Director:

The Academy will be forward-looking and give Kathryn Bigelow the first Best Director award for a woman. Point Break fans everywhere will laugh and rejoice. Ex-husband James Cameron won’t be at all bitter. But if Locker wins picture, as I say, I think it gives Cameron a better shot at director (not that I’d agree).

Your noms:

Kathryn Bigelow,  The Hurt Locker; James Cameron, Avatar; Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds; Lee Daniels, Precious; Jason Reitman, Up In The Air.

Should Win: I’m fine with Bigelow.

Will Win: Bigelow.

Upset Pick: Jason Reitman, Up In The Air.

Best Actor:

Your noms:

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart; George Clooney, Up In The Air; Colin Firth, A Single Man; Morgan Freeman, Invictus; Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker.

Should Win: Based on what I’ve seen (which excludes Bridges in Crazy Heart) eh…I’ll still give it to Bridges as the Academy sometimes does — as a career award. Like how Scorsese won for Departed and not Raging Bull or Goodfellas. But I hear Bridges is that good in the role…

Will Win: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart. He’s the Dude! He’ll really bring the room together.

Upset Pick: Colin Firth, A Single Man.

Best Actress:

Your noms:

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side; Carey Mulligan, An Education; Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia; Hellen Mirren, The Last Station; Gabourey Sidibe, Precious.

Forget all the text space I could waste. Sandra Bullock should/will win. It’s the populist pick. And she was great, (though arguably not “Best”) in the role. A crowd-pleaser and deserved for Bullock.

As an upset pick? Carey Mulligan, An Education.

Best Supporting Actor:

Your noms:

Matt Damon, Invictus; Woody Harrelson, The Messenger; Christopher Plummer, The Last Station; Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones; Christopher Waltz, Inglourious Basterds.

Another text-save. Christopher Waltz should and will win. I hear his acceptance speeches have been kind of ho-hum, but it should be a good time.

Upset Pick: Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (but really just for being Woody Harrelson).

Best Supporting Actress:

Your noms:

Penelope Cruz, Nine; Anna Kendrick, Up In The Air; Mo’Nique, Precious; Vera Farmiga, Up In The Air; Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart.

Another save still: Mo’Nique can/will/should.

Upset Pick: Anna Kendrick, Up In The Air.

Original Screenplay:

Your noms:

The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, The Messenger, A Serious Man, Up.

Should Win: Inglourious Basterds because Quentin’s gotta win something — the screenplay is layered and typically QT crazy, and giving the guy an award is good television.

Will Win: This one’s dicey…call it 55/45 Hurt Locker to Basterds.

Upset Pick: Up.

Adapted Screenplay:

Your noms:

District 9, An Education, In The Loop, Precious, Up In The Air.

Should Win: It’d be a real thrill if District 9 did…but it shouldn’t. Similarly, the Academy would be tempted to award the celebrated and followed Nick Hornby for An Education. But In The Loop (sitting in my Netflix queue with no respect for story deadlines) is supposed to be the best here, with what’s billed as great, hilarious satire that reinvents the F-bomb. So I say Loop…but it never will. (And yes, this kind of uninformed speculation and crowd following is exactly what’s wrong with these awards anyway.)

Will Win: Precious.

Upset Pick: An Education.

There’s your biggun’s. Now some of the rest:

Visual Effects: Avatar, hands down, and I could even agree.

Editing: Disctrict 9 should, Avatar might, Hurt Locker will.

Original Score: John Williams’s heir as the great film maestro, Michael Giacchino will walk away with his first of many future Oscars for Up.

Original Song: “The Weary Kind,” Crazy Heart. With Bridges performing after winning actor, it’ll be celebratory and poignant.

Cinematography: Although the shot selection was hardly groundbreaking, the technical developments in the cameras actually used for shooting Avatar might nab this award. This seems likely. But if art triumphs tech, look for The Hurt Locker again.

Sound Editing: Trekkies and Klingon speakers of the world unite and set your phasers for stunned: Star Trek wins an Oscar, also rewarding the venerable Ben Burt, Da Vinci of sound design.

The biggest winner of the night?

The audience. Win, lose or draw on your pick, the Academy’s going for broke on their telecast this year with the new and varied nominees and, most notably, the hosts: Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin. I’d watch them announce words from the dictionary. So it seems the industry might end up offering the audience something it hasn’t consistently in recent years on its biggest night: entertainment.

Or at least Steve Martin on banjo. Upset pick? Alec Baldwin on kazoo.